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Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

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Revisiting the Ides of March, Part III: Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark

This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum are his own and may not align with those of the firm, but they are consistent with all research publications published under the firm brand for which he is listed as an author. This is the concluding post in a three part series.  By the middle of March, the train is really threatening to jump the track. Read More

Economics
Revisiting the Ides of March, Part II: The Going Gets Weird
This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…
Economics
Revisiting the Ides of March, Part I: A Thousand Year Flood
This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…
China
Slouching Toward Phase One
On current trends, goods exports to China will struggle to reach their 2017 level—there won't be any big gains from the Phase One deal.
  • Argentina
    The State of Argentina’s Debt Restructuring…
    When a majority isn’t a majority…
  • Emerging Markets
    What Role Should the IMF Play in Responding to COVID-19?
    Right now the bulk of the IMF's lending capacity likely won't be used in the face of the economic, financial, and public health shock from COVID-19. Mobilizing the IMF's lending capacity likely will require a new facility. The Short-term Liquidity Line created this spring isn't actually well suited for the moment.
  • United States
    Did the Dollar's Position as the Leading Reserve Currency Help Hold Treasury Yields Down This Spring?
    Foreign Treasury sales, including large sales from reserve managers, made the Fed's job harder, not easier, in March.
  • United States
    The Irish Shock to U.S. Manufacturing?
     Over the last fifteen years, U.S. production of pharmaceuticals has fallen while imports have soared. It is worth asking why.   
  • United States
    Five Points about U.S. Trade Over the Last Thirty Years
    A few things that jumped out at me about the U.S. trade data. Some no doubt are controversial. 
  • Turkey
    Turkey Shows the Value of Balance Sheet Analysis
    Selling reserves borrowed from the banks ultimately puts the health of Turkey's banks at risk.
  • Ireland
    Ireland Really Shouldn't be Driving the Details of the Euro Area's GDP Data
    The euro area GDP data—thanks to Ireland—is increasingly telling us more about the tax strategies of large U.S. firms and less about the actual composition of activity in the euro area. Large investments in acquisition of their own intellectual property by U.S. firms transforming themselves into tax residents of Ireland ahead of the end of the double Irish are impacting the economic data of the entire currency union.